Naval Historywith Dr. Alex

Q&A · 1:51:30-1:52:09

Why the oil embargo did not make Japan back down

The State Department expected economic pressure to break Japan and discounted evidence that Japanese leaders might instead choose war.

Imperial Japanese NavyOil EmbargoRacial PrejudiceState DepartmentUS-Japan Relations
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Question

Was the State Department at fault for failing to see that the oil embargo could force Japan to act?

Short answer

Yes; officials expected Japan to yield, and racial prejudice helped them dismiss evidence that it might fight instead.

Notes

The State Department shares responsibility for misjudging the consequences of the oil embargo. Officials expected Japan to break or crumble rather than attack. Racial assumptions encouraged the belief that Japanese forces were weak and unwilling to challenge a Western power. Even the Russo-Japanese War could be dismissed as victory over an opponent those officials also regarded as inferior, leaving the flawed premise intact.