Nuclear retaliation defined the first offset, and precision conventional technology against mass defined the second. No comparably settled organizing idea exists for the third or fourth, and the third may never have been delivered before discussion moved on. Without a clear mechanism, an offset label can become a convenient justification for funding fashionable technology. Long-range fires, represented by systems such as the B-21 and HIMARS, will probably matter, while resilience may be equally important to whatever doctrine eventually emerges.
Notable Point · 32:23-34:16
Why the third and fourth offsets lack definition
The first two offsets had identifiable mechanisms, while later versions risk becoming funding labels around long-range strike, emerging technology, and resilience.