Uncertainty matters more than the initiating side's technical intent. Once one nuclear weapon is used, the taboo against further use is broken and retaliation becomes easier to justify. A ballistic-missile launch is dangerous even with a conventional payload because an opponent cannot safely wait for impact to identify the warhead. Warning systems and decision timelines may therefore trigger retaliation before the limited intent becomes clear. Escalation control can fail even when the initiating side believes it has chosen a bounded action.
Notable Point · 5:03:48-5:04:35
Why nuclear use risks uncontrollable escalation
The final discussion warns that a nuclear strike or ballistic-missile launch can trigger retaliation before its payload is understood.