Would nuclear ASROC be justified rather than risk letting a Russian submarine escape?
Short answerNo: uncertain contacts demand better classification and precise conventional weapons, especially when Russian SSBNs are likely to remain inside defended bastions.
NotesUsing nuclear ASROC against an uncertain contact is rejected even when the target might be a Russian submarine. A nuclear detonation would create environmental and escalation costs while still failing the basic requirement to identify the correct target. Accurate conventional anti-submarine weapons and better classification are the preferred answer. Russian ballistic-missile submarines are also expected to operate largely inside protected northern bastions, so attacking them is not simply a matter of finding an isolated boat in open water.