Norway had an immediate psychological effect as well as longer naval consequences. Germany's campaign was a high-risk success, and failure would have cost key personnel while exposing the limits of an improvised operation. Hitler's confidence appears to have been especially sensitive to setbacks, so defeat might have encouraged greater hesitation before the invasion of France. This is a counterfactual, with no claim that France would certainly have survived, but one campaign could still have shaped decisions in the next.
Chapter · 23:44-24:50
A failed Norwegian invasion might have checked German confidence
The victory in Norway was a high-risk success whose failure could have made German leaders more hesitant before attacking France.