In this reading, the invasion fleet was most vulnerable before German troops reached Norway. Between 6 and 9 April, British forces had several chances to surprise the ships at sea, but a mixture of luck and judgment prevented an encounter. Defeating much of the attacking force might have persuaded Berlin to call off the operation. Norway would still have tried to preserve its neutrality and might have doubted British claims that the fleet was heading for Norwegian ports. A naval interception and a Norwegian political decision to enter the war therefore remain separate questions.
Chapter · 0:16-1:38
Could a fleet interception have stopped the invasion?
The opening counterfactual asks whether defeating a substantial part of the German landing force at sea could have made Berlin abandon the operation.