The counterfactual removes the attacks on Pearl Harbor and the Philippines while keeping Japanese moves into French Indochina, Malaya, and the Dutch East Indies. Logistics immediately become harder because the route south lacks Philippine bases and infrastructure. Troops, fuel, and supplies must travel farther from the points where Japan can assemble and launch them. Bypassing American territory may reduce the immediate political risk, but it puts more strain on Japanese shipping and staging. Japan exchanges the risk of attacking the United States for longer, more demanding supply routes.
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The logistical price of bypassing Pearl Harbor
The scenario asks Japan to attack Malaya and the Dutch East Indies while leaving Hawaii and the Philippines alone, lengthening every supply movement from Japanese bases.