A successful first strike would not tell Nagumo that only two British carriers were attacking him. Heavy losses in darkness could instead suggest a four- or five-carrier force, perhaps reinforced by the United States. That uncertainty might prompt withdrawal rather than a daylight search for the Eastern Fleet. If the Japanese continued, British radar-directed fighters could still disrupt retaliation even though Martlets, Sea Hurricanes, and Fulmars were individually inferior to Zeros in several performance measures. The counterfactual remains dangerous because Warspite and the slow R-class battleships could not guarantee protection if the strike failed to change Japanese behaviour.
Notable Point · 1:17:29-1:20:53
A night strike could make Nagumo overestimate the British force
Losing carriers to an unseen night attack might have led Nagumo to infer a much larger Eastern Fleet and withdraw before discovering the real balance.