New Zealand's security assumptions are easiest to sustain while Australia stands between it and potential threats and the Pacific remains dominated by an ally. A more contested region could force choices among alliance commitments, neutrality, fighter interception, and ground-based surface-to-air missiles. Sweden and Switzerland maintained armed neutrality during the Second World War, while Britain occupied Iceland in 1940 rather than risk Germany gaining a strategically placed base. The comparison warns that declared neutrality is more credible when forces and geography make intervention costly.
Chapter · 42:44-45:51
New Zealand's neutrality problem in a contested Pacific
Reliance on Australia and an American-dominated Pacific raises hard choices for New Zealand about alliance commitments, air defence, and the credibility of neutrality.