Nelson's Toulon trap and Villeneuve's escape

Nelson pulled his squadron away from Toulon in view of the French and then moved to cover the route he expected Villeneuve to take. Villeneuve initially sailed toward the waiting Royal Navy force, but a merchant vessel warned him of its position and prompted him to choose the other exit. The escape was a genuine example of the luck Napoleon associated with Villeneuve. A Mediterranean battle between Nelson's roughly fifteen ships of the line and Villeneuve's eleven would have begun with a clear numerical imbalance. An interception at this point could have destroyed the Toulon force before the Brest fleet moved and reduced the invasion threat to another contained French concentration across the Channel.