Nelson reaches Egypt too early and misses the convoy

Nelson correctly guesses Egypt as the expedition's destination but reaches Alexandria before the French convoy and finds no enemy there. His better-drilled crews have driven their ships so effectively that the pursuit overshoots its target. An arrival during French unloading or an interception at sea might instead have led to the capture of Napoleon and much of his army. In that counterfactual, prolonged captivity could have prevented Napoleon from becoming France's leader. Superior sailing performance alone cannot produce contact when reconnaissance fails to establish the enemy's position.