What if Nelson realized he had beaten the French to Alexandria and laid an ambush?
Short answerThe French would face a losing choice between forming a battle line and exposing the transports or dispersing to protect the convoy and being defeated in detail.
NotesThe French fleet would be burdened by troops and a large merchant convoy before reaching Alexandria. If its warships concentrated into a battle line, Nelson could detach a ship of the line and frigates to destroy vulnerable transports. If the escorts dispersed around the convoy, the British could keep their own line concentrated and defeat the smaller covering groups in detail. A night ambush would make the imbalance still worse because Nelson could close before opening fire. Convoy protection creates tactical obligations that a fleet seeking a decisive battle cannot simply ignore.