Why the scenario points toward negotiated peace

Negotiated peace during 1862 is the likely conclusion. Disrupted Union trade, British and French recognition of the Confederacy, and maritime supply would compound the pressure on Washington. Possible Mexican action in Texas adds another threat, while the Union must continue financing the war through loans and debt. Historically, Union forces could attack around the Confederacy’s perimeter. Under this scenario, the Union faces threats from several directions while the Confederacy can trade overseas. Britain wanted a short war and could offer peace after victories at sea gave it bargaining strength. Continued maritime access might shift operations south and keep places such as New Orleans supplied long enough to alter later campaigns.