The battle's strategic logic was not simply whether the Ottoman fleet survived, but who would receive Greek gratitude when it fell. Codrington believed that Russia would act alone if Britain and France held back. A unilateral Russian rescue could have drawn the new Greek state into Russia's sphere and strengthened Russian access toward Constantinople and the Dardanelles. British naval leadership and French land intervention instead helped produce an independent Greece without handing Russia sole ownership of the victory.
Notable Point · 3:15:46-3:18:12
A British-led victory denied Russia exclusive influence
Codrington believed Russia would destroy the Ottoman fleet if the Western allies did not, potentially pulling Greece into a Russian sphere.