Read naval exercise successes in context

Do pre-war exercises that successfully attacked naval bases prove the real attack was inevitable?

They reveal vulnerabilities, but their significance depends on the exercise rules, assumptions and the lessons actually drawn.

Exercises repeatedly demonstrated the vulnerability of bases, including Royal Navy attacks on Malta, Gibraltar, Alexandria and Portsmouth as well as American exercises around Pearl Harbor. A reported success can expose a genuine defensive weakness. It does not by itself show that a historical attack was inevitable or that the exercise reproduced wartime conditions. Analysts must examine the rules, assumptions, permitted responses and lessons actually drawn before treating the result as evidence.