Why were there so few naval conflicts in the later twentieth century, and where might future ones occur?
Short answerThere were more naval conflicts than popular memory suggests, and once modern fleets start shooting they can inflict severe damage very quickly.
NotesThe late twentieth century saw naval combat in the India-Pakistan wars, Arab-Israeli fighting, and Operation Praying Mantis. Such actions do not produce the same visible refugee flows as land wars, so they often recede from popular memory even when they disrupt fishing, trade, and food supply. Once fleets exchange modern weapons, the scale of destructive force quickly moves beyond the ambiguity associated with warning shots or minor skirmishes. A Falklands counterfactual then shows how sinking the Argentine carrier by Harrier or submarine could have distorted later arguments about British carriers. Valuable warships provide capabilities rather than invulnerability, so policy should not swing between exaggerated confidence and panic.