What if Nationalist China bought submarines instead of two light cruisers before the war with Japan?
Short answerEven a few submarines could inflict useful losses and, if they hit a major ship, compel Japan to take anti-submarine warfare seriously sooner.
NotesA Chinese submarine force could expose weaknesses in Japanese anti-submarine preparation before the wider Pacific War. Even a small force, potentially using Dutch boats, could matter if it sank a conspicuous target. Institutional learning would still depend on how Japan interpreted the loss. A cruiser sinking might be blamed on its captain or dismissed as a fluke, whereas losing a carrier or battleship would be harder to explain away. The potential result is an earlier Japanese investment in anti-submarine warfare, alongside the immediate damage inflicted.