Could Napoleon have achieved victory or a stable stalemate in Europe?
Short answerPossibly, especially if he had avoided invading Russia and used the preserved army and time to consolidate a durable political order instead of continuing to overreach.
NotesThe invasion of Russia is the decisive overreach in this counterfactual. Avoiding it would have preserved a large, experienced army for securing French-controlled Europe. Time spent consolidating institutions and the Napoleonic Code might then have produced a more durable political order. The obstacle was Napoleon's desire for total victory, which repeatedly created new enemies and commitments faster than his system could absorb them.