Four 15-inch hits and two additional heavy hits in quick succession make Moltke a plausible loss when shell performance is changed. This helps explain why other estimates reach six or more German ships even though the five-ship headline figure remains conservative. Losing four of five battlecruisers would destroy Hipper's scouting force and make Fifth Battle Squadron appear to be the decisive weapon. Scheer might continue through sunk-cost thinking or because he believed the British fast battleships were the only heavy force nearby. Both reasons appear weaker than the evidence of catastrophic losses and his need to preserve the High Seas Fleet.
Notable Point · 2:03:03-2:05:32
Moltke's loss could end the German operation
If four effective 15-inch hits remove Moltke after the other German battlecruisers are crippled, Scheer must decide whether sunk-cost reasoning is worth risking the High Seas Fleet.