Would the Anglo-Soviet invasion still have happened if Iran had modernized to the strength of a smaller major power such as Italy?
Short answerThe conditional argument is that intervention would remain possible if Iran appeared aligned with Germany, while stronger forces and different external relationships would change the circumstances.
NotesThe counterfactual gives Iran the strength of a smaller major power such as Italy. Greater military capability would make an invasion more difficult, but it would not remove the strategic importance of Iran's position. The outcome is tied to perceived alignment: leaning toward Germany and the fascist powers would sustain the incentive for an Anglo-Soviet intervention. A different diplomatic alignment could change that calculation. Modernization would also tend to bring stronger external relationships, so the scenario cannot change Iran's military power while assuming every diplomatic condition remains fixed.