Could navies again face a convoy-escort shortage?

Could navies again have to choose between protecting the battle fleet and the merchant fleet with too few destroyers?

Yes; modern escort numbers reflect short-war and nuclear assumptions, so a prolonged conventional convoy campaign could expose a serious force-structure gap.

Modern fleets have far fewer escorts relative to the merchant traffic they might need to protect. Part of that structure came from an assumption that a major war would become nuclear before a long convoy campaign developed. A prolonged conventional conflict would force navies to divide scarce destroyers and frigates between battle groups and trade protection. One remedy would be to buy many more escorts across several classes.