Would early Osa and Komar missile boats let North Vietnam attack US ships more aggressively in the Gulf of Tonkin?
Short answerYes, but they would likely trigger a larger US response and become targets for carrier aircraft rather than overturning the naval balance.
NotesIn the 1964 counterfactual, Osa- and Komar-class missile boats would encourage North Vietnam to challenge American ships more aggressively. The expected American response is to send additional naval forces and direct carrier aircraft against the boats. Small missile craft remain detectable targets, and the larger navy has other means of attacking them besides matching their missile armament. Royal Navy Lynx helicopters with small anti-ship missiles provide a later analogy for using aviation against coastal craft. That comparison illustrates the countermeasure without placing British Lynx helicopters in the hypothetical 1964 American force.