Would a Japanese Midway victory change the war?

Would Japan winning Midway, while losing only one carrier, change the overall war?

It could delay the campaign, but it would not stop the later American carrier and destroyer expansion.

A better Japanese result at Midway could extend the timetable, but it does not remove the industrial imbalance. Japan eventually faces American production on a scale it cannot destroy fast enough to secure victory. Sustained replacement capacity shapes the later war more than the result of a single battle.