Q&A ยท 40:18-40:55

A B-17 kamikaze strike during Midway

Why the effect of a suicidal B-17 attack depends on whether the target carrier had launched its aircraft.

Question

How would Midway change if a bomb-laden B-17 made a successful kamikaze attack on a Japanese carrier?

Short answer

Japan would lose a carrier, but the wider result depends on the moment of impact and whether its aircraft were already airborne.

Notes

A successful strike would remove a Japanese carrier, but timing determines the operational result. The loss matters differently before the carrier launches, during the battle's decisive sequence, or after its air group is already committed. A follow-up judges that a hit after the Japanese strike launched but before the American dive bombers arrived might let Japan disengage with fewer additional losses. The counterfactual therefore changes carrier availability immediately while leaving the battle's larger outcome dependent on aircraft already in the air.