How the Malta class might lead to a British light carrier

If Britain had built the Malta class, could an Invincible-class carrier or something similar still have appeared?

Yes, if Cold War requirements created a need for an escort carrier, probably first through a Unicorn-like fleet-support design.

The outcome depends on how the Cold War develops and whether the Royal Navy needs an escort carrier. An exact Invincible-class ship would be unlikely to appear immediately. A more plausible intermediate design would resemble HMS Unicorn: a fleet-support vessel able to serve as a light aircraft carrier. One or two such ships could provide a bridge between the large fleet carriers and the later through-deck-cruiser requirement.