War remains risky because chance can disrupt plans that look sound on paper. Modern confidence in probability and mathematical analysis can make outcomes appear more predictable than they are. Those tools do not make the world neat or certain, and planners can become overconfident when they treat uncertainty as a problem they have already solved. The Slava class's design compromises, uneven maintenance, and wartime loss provide the immediate context for this warning about contingency.
Notable Point · 1:04:26-1:05:08
Luck and the limits of war planning
The closing reflection warns that mathematical models and probability estimates cannot eliminate chance from war, despite modern confidence in prediction.