A January 1939 war would probably develop slowly because the coalition can mobilize without home-front bombing while Japan faces growing supply pressure. British and American forces can strengthen the distant blockade, deploy submarines against coastal trade, and postpone the main fleet battle until their industrial advantage is fully in theater. Carriers and capital ships would operate together: air power would grow in importance, while battleships would still bombard coasts and finish damaged fleets. The war could last into 1941 or 1942 because blockade and bombardment need time to force a settlement, and the scenario assumes no Allied invasion of the Japanese home islands. Endurance and replacement capacity matter more than the opening balance of carrier aircraft.
Notable Point · 1:46:10-1:51:26
A long blockade war reshapes carriers and capital ships
A slow blockade gives Allied industry time to mobilize, keeps carriers and capital ships working together, and could delay peace until 1941 or 1942.