Naval battle cannot be solved by statistics alone. The enemy makes choices, and no calculation can fully account for unknown conditions or imperfect judgment. Numerical analysis still rests on decisions about which factors matter and how much weight to give them. The argument links this false certainty to the battlecruiser concept, which divided manoeuvre from fighting even though ships of the line had historically performed both functions.
Notable Point · 13:17-14:36
Why firepower arithmetic cannot decide a naval battle
Broadside calculations cannot absorb every uncertainty, enemy choice or need for the same ships to manoeuvre and fight.