French naval forces operating from Bizerte, Sousse, and Malta would make it harder to deliver fuel and ammunition to Libya, regardless of Italian soldiers' courage. A much heavier defeat at Taranto, the loss of North Africa, and continuing trouble in Greece could bring down Mussolini in late 1940 or early 1941. His dictatorship is portrayed as vulnerable to criticism in its own assembly, opposition within the armed forces, and a king already angered by Mussolini's assumption of equal military rank. Limited gains from France would offer little compensation for those defeats. The argument also connects the earlier neglect of North African supplies with Mussolini's hostility toward officers there. Italy's difficult Abyssinian campaign had left its forces overextended, while the expected recovery period before a European war was cut short. An Italian withdrawal would leave Germany to reconsider whether invading Greece still justified the troops and delay before attacking the Soviet Union.
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Defeat in Libya and Taranto threatens Mussolini
French bases and naval interdiction could collapse Italy's Libyan campaign early enough to destabilize Mussolini's regime.