Lanchester-style combat models are compared with capacity forecasts that appear convincing until events violate their assumptions. Poor decisions and bad luck can alter a battle in ways a simple force comparison fails to capture. Naval warfare supplies the example of a hit disabling propulsion or steering. A battleship can consequently lose much of its ability to fight or manoeuvre before its other weapons or structure are destroyed. The panel recalls this pattern among World War II torpedo hits without giving a statistical count.
Notable Point · 1:55:50-1:57:18
Lanchester equations and disabling hits at sea
A hit on steering or propulsion can abruptly change a naval battle, illustrating why force-ratio models need care when applied to individual ships.