Why Kursk would probably still be in Russian service

If K-141 Kursk had not sunk in 2000, would she probably still be in service?

Probably. Other Oscar II boats were retained or modernised, and Russian practice favors extending the service of usable hulls.

Had K-141 Kursk avoided the 2000 disaster, she would probably have remained in Russian service into the 2020s. Other Oscar II-class boats were retained or modernised, including Orel and Tomsk, while Belgorod demonstrates how extensively a hull from the family could be repurposed. Russian practice has generally favored keeping useful ships for as long as maintenance and conversion allow. The answer therefore rests on the class's actual retention pattern rather than on an assumption that Kursk would have received unique treatment.