The Miyako Bay raid sought a prize that could change the political outcome of the war. If Ezo forces had captured Kotetsu, their fleet might have denied the imperial side a quick victory and bought time for diplomacy. One possible negotiated outcome was a federated Japan with regional forces, a national navy, and an army used for overseas deployments. The counterfactual assumes the ironclad could impose a strategic delay even though Ezo could not resist indefinitely. Capturing Kotetsu could therefore have turned the boarding attempt into a state-shaping operation.
Notable Point · 31:46-34:30
How capturing Kotetsu might have forced negotiations
Possession of the ironclad might have prolonged Ezo resistance enough to produce a federated political settlement instead of total military defeat.