The Japanese decisive-battle concept was not automatically foolish, but its narrow timing window had closed by the Philippine Sea. By 1944 the fleet was no longer the force of 1941, while American production and operational experience had grown. Pearl Harbor becomes the missed opportunity: Japan needed either to draw the American fleet into an early decisive battle or inflict far more damage instead of merely delaying a larger counterblow.
Notable Point · 27:19-30:10
Kantai Kessen timing window
The decisive-battle discussion argues that Kantai Kessen only made sense while Japan still had a narrow early-war strength window.