Kantai Kessen as a reverse risk-fleet strategy

The decisive-battle plan sought a Tsushima- or Trafalgar-like victory that would let Japan dictate peace despite its weaker maritime industry. This can be read as almost a reverse of Germany's risk-fleet logic: Germany hoped the cost of battle would deter Britain, while Japan expected to fight, absorb damage, and then avoid intervention by another power. A comparison with Confederate strategy in the American Civil War raises the same problem, because battlefield success still had to change an opponent's willingness or political ability to continue the war. The analogy exposes how much the plan depended on reading enemy decision-making correctly. Japanese planners also contemplated conflict with Britain and the United States, whose fleets had different operating methods. Even a decisive victory over one could consume ships, pilots, and matériel that Japan could not replace before facing the other.