Wilhelm swung from confidence that Britain would remain outside the war to belief that British hostility was already fixed. Yet Britain was not mobilized and Grey's central demands remained protection of Belgium and exclusion of the German fleet from the Channel. Jagow held Grey's mediation proposal in Berlin until the Serbian ultimatum had expired, undermining the effort to secure a settlement. Wilhelm's abrupt reversals reveal how messages were filtered through his expectations rather than assessed against Britain's actual military posture.
Chapter · 1:22:31-1:28:20
Wilhelm misreads British mediation
British mediation and warnings were interpreted in Berlin through rapidly changing assumptions about whether Britain would intervene.