What if Kaiser Wilhelm II, rather than Archduke Franz Ferdinand, were assassinated by a Frenchman in Alsace-Lorraine?
Short answerFrance would have to cooperate fully to retain its alliances, and Germany's fleet program would remain on its existing slowdown rather than suddenly expanding.
NotesA French national killing Kaiser Wilhelm II on German soil would make British and Russian support for France difficult to secure. Britain might intervene only to protect Belgium, while Russia would have to consider the murder of the tsar's cousin. France's best chance would be to invite international investigation, establish whether the assassin acted alone, and prosecute any conspiracy. Closing ranks instead could leave France diplomatically isolated for two or three years. Crown Prince Wilhelm is considered less impulsive and less devoted to the navy than his father, although Germany's response would still determine whether the crisis became a war. German naval construction would probably change little because competition with Britain's increasingly expensive battleships had already collided with army funding priorities. The Queen Elizabeth class is the example used to explain why the army gained the stronger political claim on resources.