If Julius Caesar survived the Ides of March, would a later triumvirate and civil war still occur, and when would the Republic become the Empire?
Short answerRome was already moving toward de facto empire under Caesar, while Antony, Cleopatra, Octavian, and Caesarion would still create powerful coalition and succession pressures.
NotesCaesar's dictatorship was already moving the Republic toward de facto imperial rule, so his survival would change the route more than the underlying transition. Caesar would still need senior allies and might form a governing partnership resembling a triumvirate with Mark Antony. Cleopatra's relationship or marriage to Antony becomes a major variable. Octavian, the future Augustus, would also have to decide how to respond to Caesarion, Cleopatra's acknowledged son by Caesar. Those relationships leave ample scope for later succession struggles and civil war, while the timing of a formal transition to empire remains unresolved.