Q&A · 1:02:58-1:04:40

How can leaders avoid the Jeune École's confirmation bias?

A trusted subordinate willing to question assumptions can help leaders test an attractive strategy.

Question

Was the Jeune École's problem that advocates assumed the enemy would do exactly what made the idea work?

Short answer

Yes; the doctrine depended on favorable enemy behavior, which is why leaders need trusted subordinates willing to challenge their plans.

Notes

An attractive strategy can become self-confirming when its advocates assume that the enemy will behave exactly as it requires. The proposed safeguard is a chief of staff or second-in-command who has the confidence to question a plan. Constructive challenge differs from bullying, personal belittlement or obstructing everything for its own sake. An idea that survives a trusted subordinate's objections has received a more useful test than agreement alone.