The decisive carrier battle shifts toward the Java Sea

A single British carrier and three fast capital ships should withdraw from the full Japanese First Air Fleet, but two British carriers plus American reinforcements create a credible ambush. Australian fueling and traffic analysis could position Allied task forces on opposite approaches to the Java Sea. The British concentration gives Washington a viable force to reinforce and a reason to preserve its central role in Pacific command, instead of sending carriers into a collapsing theater without support. Japan would likely wait for a force comparable to the historical Indian Ocean raid rather than enter the theater piecemeal. Even a Coral Sea-style tactical draw could be strategically important if it blocks or delays the Japanese advance.