Japan's fear-driven gamble for war

In this reading, fear rather than confidence in easy conquest shaped much of the Japanese high command's reasoning. Many leaders expected defeat against the United States but preferred a small chance won through a sudden blow to decline under sanctions without fighting. Their operational concept assumed that an angry American advance could be eroded through defence in depth and repeated attrition before a decisive fleet battle. Pearl Harbor then faces a strategic contradiction: enough success could prevent the advance Japan planned to weaken, while too little success would fail to force negotiation.