Why winning Guadalcanal would not solve Japan's problem

What would happen after a Japanese victory in the Guadalcanal campaign?

Japan might hold the island for a time, but increasing American shipbuilding and amphibious capacity would bring a larger follow-on campaign.

A Japanese victory would leave Japan holding Guadalcanal after the resources spent to secure it. The American fleet and amphibious forces would continue to grow through shipbuilding. The proposed consequence is another campaign when a larger American force returned. Success at one position would therefore leave the production imbalance that drove the counterfactual unresolved.