Japan's decision to stop fighting is treated as uncertain in this counterfactual. There are good reasons to argue that it would probably have surrendered without atomic weapons, leaving their necessity open to question. Continued resistance is also considered a serious possibility, including turns of events in which even atomic weapons fail to end the war. That raises the prospect of a prolonged conflict without a decisive settlement. The North Korea comparison illustrates that prospect, with the qualification that a similar confrontation with Japan would have been much harder to manage.
Notable Point · 8:07-9:13
Japanese surrender and the risk of a prolonged war
The counterfactual weighs surrender without atomic weapons against continued Japanese resistance and a prolonged standoff.