Japan's 1941 strength cannot be projected into 1939

The scenario does not dismiss Japanese naval strength. By 1941 the Imperial Japanese Navy was far stronger than it had been in early 1939. In January 1939, Japan remained committed in China, lacked a prepared plan for this conflict, and had not concentrated the later carrier, aircraft, landing, and support system. The difference helps explain why the historical Japanese admiral did not answer the Tsingtao humiliation with an attack. A counterfactual that forces war at the earlier date must therefore preserve the disadvantages that real commanders could see at the time.