Why Japan struggled once the United States seized the initiative

Was Japan's Second World War strategy too dependent on the United States behaving as Japanese planners expected?

Yes. Once American raids and a methodical attritional campaign replaced the approach Japan expected, Japan could no longer compel the one decisive battle on which its theory of victory depended.

The criticism has merit: Japan's strategy became inflexible when the United States refused to follow the expected path. A methodical American campaign of attrition, island hopping, and diversionary raids would force Japan to disperse forces instead of concentrating them for annihilation. Early carrier raids restored the American strategic initiative and let American production determine the pace of the war. Japan possessed one narrow theory of victory: attrit the approaching fleet and then destroy it in a decisive battle. Once that encounter could not be compelled, Japanese commanders were managing a structurally bad situation rather than choosing among several equally promising alternatives.