Japan misread an attritional enemy through a decisive-battle tradition

What disaster would Japan have needed to force the United States into a negotiated peace after Pearl Harbor?

Probably the total destruction of the US Navy, and even that was unlikely to work because America was more likely to mobilize than negotiate.

Japanese experience suggested that battlefield success could lead to a negotiated settlement, as it had after victories over Russia and Germany. Britain and the United States came from a different tradition, one in which defeat prompted them to raise and send more forces. Pearl Harbor therefore could not easily produce the political effect Japan required, even if the tactical result were more complete. The strategic error lay in assuming that a spectacular battle would have the same meaning to the opponent that it had in Japan's own recent military experience.