The counterfactual asks whether Japan might have attacked and blockaded the Philippines while deliberately leaving long-range radio links available. Appeals from Douglas MacArthur could then have increased political pressure for an American relief fleet to cross the Pacific. Such a force would have supplied the concentrated target required by Japanese interception-attrition doctrine. The caveat is decisive: American and British planners had war-gamed Japan's needs, understood the trap, and had no intention of advancing exactly as Japanese doctrine required.
Notable Point · 1:18:51-1:20:20
Could the Philippines have drawn out the fleet Japan wanted?
A counterfactual blockade of the Philippines might have encouraged an American relief attempt, but US and British planners understood the attrition trap and did not intend to follow Japan's script.