What if Japan invaded Hawaii instead of the Philippines after the Pearl Harbor strike?
Short answerA simultaneous air attack and landing offers the best chance, but overcoming and sustaining an invasion of Hawaii would be much harder than the historical raid.
NotesHawaii's defenses would remain a major obstacle even after a successful surprise strike. A landing would have the best chance if troops approached while the air attack was already suppressing defenders rather than arriving later. If Japan seized the islands, American carriers, aircraft, and forces bound for Hawaii would be lost or displaced and the United States would rebuild from the mainland. The invasion's demands would go far beyond sinking ships in harbor.