Could Japan afford an Alaska or San Francisco strike before taking the Dutch East Indies' oil?
Short answerPossibly: Anchorage was closer than Pearl Harbor, and San Francisco might require only a two-carrier detachment because it offered fewer targets.
NotesThe viewer tests the alternatives against Japan's serious oil shortage before conquering the Dutch East Indies. Anchorage lay roughly 3,000 nautical miles from Japan and was therefore closer than Pearl Harbor. San Francisco was farther away, but it offered fewer targets than Pearl Harbor's fleet complex. Japan might consequently detach only two of the six carriers, reducing the force and fuel committed to the raid even though the longer voyage remained demanding.