Would a large Japanese oil discovery before the Pacific War change its strategy?
Short answerIt would ease embargo pressure and increase time and fleet activity, but it would not remove Japan's deeper training, production, shipping, and industrial disadvantages.
NotesJapan's dependence on imported petroleum made the American embargo a direct clock on strategic decision-making. A large domestic discovery would extend that clock and allow the fleet to train and operate with fewer immediate fuel constraints. It would not repair the attrition system, aircraft production, pilot replacement, shipping, and industrial imbalance that later crippled Japan. The discovery changes timing and operational freedom more readily than the underlying balance against the United States.