Chapter ยท 2:12-5:50

Why Japan's decisive battle strategy needed a negotiated peace

Japan planned to attrit an advancing Allied fleet before a decisive battle, but lacked the resources to withstand successive replacement fleets.

Notes

In this interpretation, Pearl Harbor was meant to provoke the US Pacific Fleet into a westward advance. Japanese torpedo and air attacks would wear that force down before a decisive fleet battle. The plan assumed that the United States or Britain would negotiate after losing its first major fleet, as Russia had after the Russo-Japanese War. Japan's industrial base, repair system, and resource depth could support an initial battle more readily than a second or third replacement fleet. A long war would expose the disparity between Japan and the larger Allied powers. The strategy therefore required a rapid military success to produce a negotiated peace.